NL West Preview

I'm going to do these predictions individually by division, cause that way I can give a little more time to each one of them, and make sure I have a cogent argument for why each team will finish in a given position. For the purposes of stat quotation, I'm going to do it in the following way:

Starting Pitcher 12-10 (record), 3.63 (ERA), 223 (innings pitched).
Relief Pitcher 1-3 (record), 5.43 (ERA), 13 (saves, if applicable. If a middle reliever, I'll be explicit.)
Batter .265 (AVG), 32 (HR), 120 (RBI)
Defensive Stats .956 (fielding percentage), 12 (errors), 78 (total chances).

Starting in the West and moving East, and starting with the NL allows me to finish with my home division, the AL East. But for today, the NL West:

5. Colorado Rockies - Shawn Chacon is hard to judge. He didn't start for the Rockies last year, and in his relief role, put up some very poor numbers. 1-9, 7.11, 35. Blew 9 save opportunities. but if you look back at his 2003 numbers, a season in which he did start, he went 11-8, 4.60, 137. It will be interesting to see whether he reverts to his '03 numbers or if his struggles in '04 become more magnified in a starter's role. Todd Helton remains the high point for the offense. .347, 32, 96 last season. He'll be 32 this season, so he's just at his prime now, and his past numbers would agree with that as well. .358 average in 2003. He can play pretty well defensively as well, but speed is not something he possesses in large quantities. Overall, this is a team in a massive rebuilding stage. After losing Walker to the Cardinals last season, they could really use some help, and the thin air of Coors Field isn't going to be enough to get the bats working.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks - Javier Vazquez is good, but not good enough to be called anyone's ace. After losing Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson in successive seasons, the D-Backs acquired Vazquez and Russ Ortiz to fill the void. A team went from having two pitchers nobody wanted to face to having two pitchers who shouldn't be competing for a number one spot. And Casey Fossum and his 6.65 ERA from last year certainly aren't going to help. No pitcher with a line of 4-15, 6.65, 142 should be starting. In any rotation, let alone one in this quasi-competitive division. Offensively, however, the team has upgraded. Craig Counsell's back, and while he's not somebody I'd pick for my own fantasy team, he's played well in the heat. Luis Gonzalez is always a threat, and the addition of Troy Glaus makes the lumber a lot more serious than it was last year.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers - I have never liked Derek Lowe. I'm sorry, but when your big acquisition for your pitching staff is a guy with 14-12, 5.42, 182.2 numbers with the most dangerous hitters in the AL, you're not good anymore. I just don't see him reverting to his '02 numbers, when he put up a no-hitter and a 21-win season. Odalis Perez, however, is solid. 7-6, 3.25, 196.1. Jose Lima had a genuine love for the game, and he shows it every time he goes out onto that mound. However, he's currently on the Royals, as I found out a week after I initially posted this prediction set. But GM Paul Depodesta's made some boneheaded moves this past off-season, and the Dodgers don't look to contend for the Wild Card. Jeff Kent was a solid pickup, but Jose Valentin isn't. Cesar Izturis can run, but he can't hit for power. His average, .288, is decent, but it resembles Ichiro's 'go for a single' strategy too much.

2. San Diego Padres - The fluke of the division, maybe of the whole National League. Jake Peavy is going to have a huge season, even after last year's incredible numbers (15-6, 2.27, 166.1). Even as late as August, his ERA was an amazing 2.08. Look for Peavy to challenge Sheets for the NL Cy Young Award. The rest of the rotation isn't fantastic, but it's decent. Adam Eaton (11-14, 4.61, 199.1) will rebound from a tough season and put up numbers closer to his '03 season, where he had a 4.08 ERA. Brian Lawrence's 4.12 ERA will drop to be closer to his 3.91 career numbers. And the bullpen is equally solid. Scott Linebrink and his 2.14 ERA will anchor this. Akinori Otsuka (7-2, 1.75, 87 K's) will provide great stability in the bridge to the closer, Trevor Hoffman. Offensively, expect Khalil Greene to equal his numbers from his rookie season. No sophomore slump for this kid, who finished high in the ROTY voting. Ryan Klesko will hit well, once again, and the team's picked up a genuine base-stealing threat in Dave Roberts. If the Padres don't get the Wild Card, they're going to make a serious challenge for it.

1. San Francisco Giants - I really don't like Barry Bonds, but if nothing else, he's been consistent lately. And despite fielding what will possibly be the oldest outfield in baseball history (Grissom, Bonds, Alou) these guys can still hit. Omar Vizquel will become the regular shortstop, which isn't fantastic, but it's probably just a stopgap until next season, when they can make a run at Garciaparra. Edgardo Alfonzo will continue to excel. If it's not in the cards for the Giants, it will be because of pitching. Jason Schmidt will anchor a somewhat weak staff. Noah Lowry (6-0, 3.82, 92) will slip nicely into the number two spot, but after that, it's not so clear. Jerome Williams, Brad Hennessy and Brett Tomko all look to make the rotation, but in what order? The middle relief isn't crystal either, but the closer Armando Benitez is solid. Giants will make the playoffs after missing out last year by a slim margin.