AL West Preview

Before I begin on the AL West, which figures to be less competitive than in previous years, I need to make a short update on the NL West. Not too long after I made my post projecting the Diamondbacks to finish fourth, the team completed a trade with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays involving Jose Cruz Jr. and Casey Fossum. I don't think this helps either team in a substantial way. Arizona's getting a decent outfielder who walks like a woman (seriously, watch him after he flies out - he shakes his ass more than Vida Guerra) and Tampa's getting a crap pitcher who figures to never really make an impact. Arizona's lineup figures to get slightly better, while I hope Fossum somehow makes Tampa's rotation, if only because that means the Sox will face him multiple times, making a nice contrast from the effective Scott Kazmir.

And now for the AL West:

4. Oakland Athletics - I didn't want to put these guys here. Honestly, I didn't. Macha's always been able to make his teams, crappy as they might look before the season, pull it off. But Beane blew up the pitching staff this offseason. There's nothing left. Oakland's best starter looks to be Barry Zito (11-11, 4.48, 213), and that's not someone you want leading your staff. Some will give him the benefit of the doubt, as he was a fantastic pitcher in the not-too-distant past. Rich Harden, however, (11-7, 3.99, 189.2) could take the 'ace' title away from Zito if Barry's troubles continue. The bullpen looks great, though. Acquisitions of Kiki Calero (3-1, 2.78, 47 K's) and Danny Haren (3-3, 4.50, 4 HRs) help to strengthen a bullpen that already features Chad Bradford (the dude who scrapes his knuckles on the mound, he pitches so sidearm), Ricardo Rincon, and Octavio Dotel. Justin Duchsherer is nobody to sneeze at either. Hitting will also not be a huge problem for these guys. Jason Kendall, Erubiel Durazo, and Mark Kotsay will anchor a potent lineup. But emulating the Red Sox of old (all hit, no pitch) is not the way to win games. These guys won't be ridiculously bad (see Tigers, Detroit, 2003), but they haven't improved, and all three other teams have.

3. Seattle Mariners - My justification for this isn't entirely rational. Just glancing at the roster, it seems like Seattle's pitching is even worse than Oakland's. But look a little farther. Joel Pineiro (6-11, 4.67, 140.2) looks like he would not be a solid pitcher. But he only started 21 games. And he finished one of them. It might be slightly foolish, but I don't think anybody with the capability to throw a complete game is a waste of a pitcher. And his last game was on July 25th, indicating he was injured. How long do you think he was injured before he finally got shut down for the season? Look for him to rebound. His past numbers would indicate he will - (3.87 ERA in 2003, 3.24 in '02, both in a starting role). Ryan Franklin is the same. (4-16, 4.90, 200.1) in 2004, but past numbers are significantly better, and nobody can look at this Mariners lineup and say they haven't improved. In 2003, despite an 11-14 record, he threw a 3.57 ERA in 212 innings. His HR totals are a bit concerning, though. I think that with a stronger offense (see Beltre, Adrian) Franklin's numbers will turn around. And no team with Eddie Guardado closing for them can be counted out. Miguel Olivo doesn't seem to know how to hit for average. He had a (.233, 13, 40) line in 2004, but he only got 306 at-bats in 96 games. Pokey Reese is a huge defensive pickup, but the assumption has to be made that he won't be healthy all year. Under Ron Jackson, the Red Sox hitting coach, Reese had a decent average before he got hurt, and when he got healthy again, he'd lost his job to Bellhorn and Garciaparra, and later Cabrera. Beltre, in my opinion, was not a fluke. He will put those kind of numbers up again. Richie Sexson can put up good numbers, provided he plays a full season. And Randy Winn and the inimitable Ichiro Suzuki will get on base for Beltre to drive in. The Mariners won't be stellar, but they'll just outperform the Athletics.

2. Texas Rangers - This team has some hardcore offense. Alfonso Soriano (.280, 28, 91), Mark Teixeira (.281, 38, 112), and Hank Blalock (.276, 32, 110) will continue to hammer the leather off the ball. And Michael Young, the guy asked to step into Alex Rodriguez's shoes last season, hit for (.313, 22, 99). And all of them are less than 30 years old, indicating that if Texas can acquire some strong pitching, they will be a force to be reckoned with. Of course, they have to hold on to their players. On the pitching front, like Oakland, the rotation is weak, but the bullpen is strong. Chan Ho Park is a guy many fans were hoping to have back, it seemed. (4-7, 5.46, 95.2) is not a good line. However, his 2001 numbers, granted the age, would show that he can be on his game. With the Dodgers, he put up a (15-11, 3.50, 234) line. Pretty impressive, especially the innings pitched. Pedro Astacio is a bigtime wild card. Can be nasty when he's on, but he's not on often. Nor is he healthy often. Ryan Drese (14-10, 4.20, 207.2) looks to be one of Texas' better pitchers. Kenny Rogers (18-9, 4.76, 211.2) is older than 40 now, but can still be counted on for about 15 wins. And the bullpen has Frank Francisco, Francisco Cordero, Juan Dominguez, and Doug Brocail as solid arms. Texas probably won't challenge for the wild card, but they'll do somewhere between .510 and .575 in win percentage.

1. Anaheim Angels - They just keep getting better. Getting Guerrero last off-season was brilliant, and it turned out he would produce. (.337, 39, 126) is a very impressive line in a strong American League. Garret Anderson will continue to hit about .300 (.301, 14, 75) and provide the baserunners needed to get Guerrero RBIs. And then there's Steve Finley. (.271, 36, 94). He might perform, he might not. It's kinda hard to say. This past year he had a big jump (14) in HRs and a big jump in RBIs (24). But Finley will be 40 before the season begins, and since that's the magical age at which everything starts to go downhill, look for a slight drop-off in his numbers. I like Dallas MacPherson. He's got one of the coolest names ever. But if he doesn't start hitting against lefties (.083 AVG against lefties in very limited time) his cool name will be appearing in a AAA town near you. Adam Kennedy is a strong player as well. (.278, 10, 48). His second and third numbers in that line are weak because he likely hits high in the lineup, making it his job to get on base for the big bats of Guerrero and (sadly) the Molina brothers. Chone Figgins is fast. 34 SB last year. And Orlando Cabrera, one of my favorite players in his short time here in Boston, is the whole package. He can run, he's got a Gold Glove, and I'm confident he can hit now that he's gotten out of the hellhole that is/was Montreal. He's also a fantastic clubhouse guy to have around. Pitching-wise, Bartolo Colon can't do any worse than his first half last year, so he'll start to live up to his contract. Jarrod Washburn (11-8, 4.64, 149.1) has some great potential. He did give up the dinger to David Ortiz in his first pitch of ALDS Game 3, which is why his name is so familiar, but Washburn is solid. John Lackey's numbers look very similar to Washburn's, only with more IP (198.1). Paul Byrd (8-7, 3.94, 114.1) figures to make the rotation after being signed this past offseason. And Kelvim Escobar, despite a losing record, had a sub-4.00 ERA last season, making him a very dangerous pitcher. Nobody can forget the spastic delivery of Francisco Rodriguez, who will now assume the closer's role after the departure of Troy Percival. K-Rod was brilliant in his setup role, but there are questions about how he'll handle the pressure. In the ALDS against Boston, he failed to live up to his moniker. Overall, the Angels are a very solid team, and generally you will be when you have a payroll like theirs (over $110 million, topped only by New York and Boston). The Angels will pretty much run away with the AL East, clinching quite early and leaving the only question: will the AAA scrubs they bring up in September be able to get them home field for the first round?