After two divisions in which I have little to no emotional connection, I finally breach one of the two in which I do. In the NL Central, I have a strong rooting interest in the Pittsburgh Pirates (long story why, really), so I’m going to do my absolute best to remain as unbiased as possible. I want to think that the prevalence of statistics in my predictions will help with this, as statistics don’t lie. They can be manipulated, but they don’t lie.
Without further discussion, then, the NL Central:
6. Cincinnati Reds – Before I started looking at the statistics and going off of just what I remembered, I was very high on this team. I even thought they might challenge for the NL Wild Card. But after looking through the 40-man roster, there are really only a few high points. This team has a fantastic outfield. Ken Griffey Jr. is back and (supposedly) healthy. His first half, during which he finally crossed the 500 HR mark, looked like (.253, 60, 20). That’s not even that good, really. Most defensive replacements can hit .250. But Griffey’s something different – a bit of an enigma, I must admit. He’ll be 36 this November, so he’s approaching the twilight of his career, having hit some great numbers. He’ll likely break Ted Williams’ HR total of 521 before he’s finished. Despite his low average, his slugging percentage was a healthy .513, helping his stats somewhat. I would project Griffey to have a (.275, 75, 24) season. Besides Griffey, in the outfield, you’ve got Adam Dunn (.266, 102, 46) and Austin Kearns, a young player with huge potential. But that’s almost where anything the Reds have going for them stops. The pitching situation for this team is poor. Yes, they do have Eric Milton, but even he’s not performing up to the standards the Yankees wanted before they nearly signed him. Milton had a (14-6, 4.75, 201.0) line last year. Not really that impressive, and he’s supposed to be this team’s ace. Kent Mercker is the high point in the bullpen, but after that, pretty much nothing of note. Maybe I’m wrong, maybe this team will do what my gut wanted them to and perform well, but right now, going off of previous seasons and reasonable projections, it ain’t gonna happen.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates – Here they are. To my Pirates-loving friend, I did the best I could. But this is as high as I can place them without showing clear and obvious bias. You’re not going to be happy to read some of this, unfortunately. We’ll start with the hitting. The Pirates have a good problem to have with a logjam in the outfield. Tike Redman, Rob Mackowiak, Jason Bay (reigning NL RoTY), and Matt Lawton are all going to be fighting for starting jobs. And if it weren’t for the necessity of a healthy, consistent first baseman in Craig Wilson, he’d be fighting for an outfield job, too. Who’s projected to end up starting in PNC Park’s outfield? Jason Bay is a shoo-in for left field. He had a phenomenal rookie season (.282, 82, 26) and you just can’t take that out of the lineup after only one year. On a more cynical note, what kind of press would the team get if they benched the Rookie of the Year? For center field, Lloyd McClendon (Pirates manager) is quoted as saying its Tike Redman’s job to lose, but Matt Lawton will likely be the person to take it from him. Tike had nearly-decent numbers (.280, 51, 8) but not good enough to start when there are so many more capable candidates. The average is fair, but only 51 RBIs with that average isn’t. Even for a lead-off guy, 51 is pretty low. I’m not expecting a Johnny Damon-like performance, but he’s not getting enough people over the plate. Matt Lawton was acquired from the Indians, and will take over the leadoff batting role. (.277, 70, 20). Those numbers are a great deal more respectable, granted he played for an American League team with the DH. Lawton will supplant Redman at center field either before the season or shortly after it starts up. Right field, Ben Grieve, newly acquired, will fit in pretty well. He’ll be fighting with Redman for that spot, but this is where Redman might have a chance. Their offensive numbers are comparable, Grieve with a (.260, 35, 8) line in somewhat limited time last year with Milwaukee and Chicago. Grieve sported a .964 fielding percentage last year, in limited time, while Redman, in center field, put up a .986 percentage. If Redman wants to start, here’s where he has to win the position. Infield has no logjam. In fact, there’s at least one gaping hole. Benito Santiago will take over the catching duties from MVP Jason Kendall, now with the Oakland Athletics. But Santiago’s no spring chicken, and an aging catcher’s knees can go at any point. First base belongs to Craig Wilson, who should be an outfielder. He may share time with Daryle Ward. Shortstop is Jack Wilson (no relation). And third base is Ty Wigginton, who’s performed marginally well. But second is a problem. Last season that was Jose Castillo, whose offensive numbers (.256, 39, 8) don’t justify his .980 fielding percentage. This gap needs to be filled. Pitching-wise, they have Oliver Perez, who, if healthy, can hold his own in a duel with any pitcher you choose. But then comes Mark Redman, who honestly, is a bit overrated. Look at last year’s numbers – (11-12, 4.71, 191). That’s an awful high ERA for a number two pitcher. The bigger problem though is that there’s nothing to indicate he’ll rebound. He had a good year once, in Florida (3.59 ERA) but nothing before that indicated progress. He looks like he might be a fluke guy. Jose Mesa will retain the closing duties, and will likely excel at them. But he’s getting old as well, so look for Brian Meadows to get some opportunities.
4. Milwaukee Brewers – Ben Sheets isn’t a fluke. And as much as people on the East Coast, where hardcore rivalries live, want him, he’s staying in the Cheese State for a while to come. His numbers last year were nothing short of amazing, (12-14, 2.70, 237), and if he had any offensive support, he’d have been a 20-game winner. Good pitching can only be effective if there’s marginal hitting to back it up. Sheets is going to pitch damn well next year. Perhaps not as well as 2.70 ERA, but almost certainly no worse than 3.50. Following him in the rotation is Doug Davis. (12-12, 3.39, 207.1). Those are deceptively good numbers. He had a .500 season with the poor offensive production of the Brewers, while maintaining a damn good ERA at the same time. A good deal of the pitching for the Brew Crew is going to hinge on Jose Capellan. The former Braves pitcher has very poor statistics (0-1, 11.25, 8) in a week’s worth of pitching, but is said to have some great potential. And at the age of 24, he’s got time to figure it out. If the Brewers are to avoid the cellar, they’ll need him to perform as well as he’s expected to by the organization. After Capellan is the enigmatic Victor Santos, who has some very, very strange splits. (Thanks, Pack87Man.) His day/night splits have led to him being dubbed the vampire. During the day, he threw a 7.19 ERA. But at night, 3.86. On turf, 3.18. On grass, 5.11. It’s quite bizarre. Overall, his numbers weren’t much to write home about, especially for a number three pitcher. (11-12, 4.97, 154). If he gets relegated to the number four spot, with Capellan taking the number three, those look a lot more attractive, but he can’t stay as a middle of the rotation guy with that. However, Capellan may start in AAA, just until he’s 100%. I’ve personally always been high on Chris Capuano, and not just because he’s a local boy from Springfield, MA. He’s got the stuff. (6-8, 4.99, 81). But he was playing injured from about June on, and before then, he had a sub-4.00 ERA. I really think he’s going to be a great player. Brooks Kieschnick is a high point in Milwaukee’s bullpen, with a sub-4.00 ERA. Offensively, this team’s a little bit weaker. Damian Miller (.272, 58, 9) is alright, at least in hitting for average. Lyle Overbay, if he can repeat his past numbers, is a legitimate threat at first base. (.301, 87, 16). Spivey, if he’s healthy, can produce at second. (.272, 28, 7). J.J. Hardy will be a question mark. The rookie shortstop was injured a bit last year, so it will be interesting to see if he can come back from that at the same time as he’s breaking into the big leagues.
3. Chicago Cubs – These guys have four solid, solid pitchers in their rotation. The question is whether they’ll all stay healthy. Mark Prior (6-4, 4.02, 118.2), Kerry Wood (8-9, 3.72, 140), Greg Maddux (16-11, 4.02, 212), and Carlos Zambrano (16-8, 2.75, 209.2) have enough that if they’re all clicking simultaneously, no team will win any series against them. They don’t even need that much offensive support, their pitching has the potential to be that good. John Leicester (5-1, 3.89, 41.2) and Ryan Dempster (1-1, 3.92, 20.2) will help to bridge between the starters and the closer, LaTroy Hawkins (5-4, 2.63, 25 saves). This is all assuming, of course, Dusty Baker doesn’t overwork his starters and actually gives the bullpen a chance. And as some people are aware, this isn’t any guarantee. Switching to the hitting, the team has Michael Barrett behind the plate, and he’s greatly outhit Henry Blanco, the backup. Blanco and Barrett are about equal defensively, so Barrett should see the majority of the time. The infield of Derrek Lee (.278, 98, 32), Todd Walker (.274, 50, 15), Nomar Garciaparra (.308, 41, 9), and Aramis Ramirez (.318, 103, 36) will produce offensively, for sure, but defensively, none of them are fantastic. The outfield, however, is this team’s doom. Jeromy Burnitz probably shouldn’t be starting anywhere anymore. Jerry Hairston only might turn into something. It’s too soon. Corey Patterson isn’t bad (.266, 72, 24) but he swings for the fences. Needs to take a lesson from Willie Mays Hayes.
2. St. Louis Cardinals – These guys have lost a lot more than they’ve gained. Leaving are Edgar Renteria, Mike Matheny, and Woody Williams. Joining are David Eckstein, Mark Mulder, and Mark Grudzielanek. The newbies don’t exactly equal the old ones. The Red Sox, Angels, and Cardinals all did a shortstop swap, and St. Louis got the short end of it. Which isn’t to say that Eckstein is a bad player. (.276, 35, 2) But he’s no Cabrera or Renteria. Last year’s addition of Larry Walker was a godsend to the Cardinals. (.298, 47, 17 in half a season). He gave them the fourth outfielder they needed to be able to move Albert Pujols to first. And Pujols is a damn good outfielder, so think of what they’re getting on first. (.331, 123, 46) And then there’s Scott Rolen. His line, (.314, 124, 34) doesn’t really do this player justice. He’s an outstanding third baseman who had an OPS of over 1.000. Speed is the one tool he doesn’t have in his arsenal, and even with that, he’s not horrible. He’s not even 30 yet, and he’ll hit 300 home runs within 3 years. In the outfield, you’ve got Jim Edmonds, Reggie Sanders, and Walker, who despite his weight, plays the right field position quite well. And none of them, even with Sanders’ lower stats, is a bad hitter. Walker, Rolen, Pujols, and Edmonds put up some monstrous numbers throughout the season, which contributed to the questioning of why they couldn’t do it against the Red Sox pitching last October. Pitching-wise, this team is still strong. Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Matt Morris, and Mulder will make for a very strong front end of the rotation, coming before Julian Tavarez can hold the line for Jason Isringhausen. Their closer posted 47 saves and a 2.87 ERA over the course of the season. This Cardinals team is very likely going to the playoffs again. And quite honestly, if it weren’t for Houston’s obscenely good lineup, even with their losses, they’d win the division.
1. Houston Astros – Which brings me to the Astros. They lost Wade Miller, Jeff Kent, and Carlos Beltran. And yet I’m still calling for them to win the highly competitive NL Central. Why? Cause Andy Pettitte’s coming back. When your rotation starts out with the reigning Cy Young Award winner, Roger Clemens (18-4, 2.98, 214.1), you’re going to get a bunch of wins. But then when you follow that with Pettitte, (21-8, 4.02, 208.1 in 2003), and Roy Oswalt (20-10, 3.49, 237), that’s almost 60 wins right there. Which isn’t to mention their amazing closer. Brad Lidge is Mariano Rivera in the National League, if he continues with these numbers. (6-5, 1.90, 94.2). But that’s not even the incredible part. This next stat is NOT a typo: 157 strikeouts. In less than 95 innings. Without doing the math, he’s averaging better than a strikeout and a half each inning. That’s just unheard of. He’s also not yet 30, so he should have a long time dominating this league. I honestly can’t say enough about this guy. He’s very likely going to be top ten on my list of people for the fantasy league(s) in which I participate. How does a team that loses the likes of Jeff Kent fare to get better? Well, Mike Lamb is one way. He’s not an addition to the team, but he’s a damn good player. He’s a big guy who hits for average (.288 last year) rather than power (14 HRs), but he’s better defensively than many. Jose Vizcaino (.274, 33, 3) seems to be hitting at about his career averages, so fans shouldn’t expect more out of him than they’re getting currently. And Adam Everett’s numbers are very similar to Vizcaino’s, so the shortstop position will, unfortunately, not be one of great offensive production for Houston. I like Morgan Ensburg. (.275, 66, 10). Not fantastic numbers, but not poor, either. And defensively, he’s no star, with a career .952 fielding percentage, but the guy seems to leave everything on the field. The problem is who will take third, Lamb or Ensburg. And then there’s Jeff Bagwell. (.266, 89, 27). Looking to the outfield that lost Beltran, I can still see some damn good talent out there. Lance Berkman has an OPS of over 1.000, and given his placement in the middle of the lineup, should figure to hit triple-digit RBIs again. (106 last year). And Craig Biggio (.281, 63, 24), who’s been on the Astros forever, looking to get a ring for the first time. I don’t see anybody stopping this potent pitching rotation, and the Astros have enough offense to hold off a late Cardinals charge for the division.
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